Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker made a big deal out of “finding” 250,000 hidden Illinoisans during the past decade, claiming the state population was over 13 million in the 2020 Census head count.
“I look forward to celebrating this development with all Illinoisans, including those who routinely badmouth our state,” Pritzker said in a press statement last week.
Two interesting observations here.
First, Pritzker cheerily embraces the idea of population gain, despite plenty of evidence Illinois is rapidly losing people, and he misinterpreted what the U.S. Census Bureau was saying. Of course, you’d expect him to grab onto the “Illinois is growing” theme, because it lets him ignore the public policy issues that he’s made worse, including $2,165 in new taxes per family that are driving those families out.
“Move along. Nothing to see here,” Pritzker is saying.
Second, he tried to hush anyone who calls him out for his mistake by expecting even those who “routinely badmouth our state” to join him in his glee. Facts can be troublesome things, but telling the truth is far from badmouthing.
So now for some truth telling.
The U.S. Census Bureau knows counting every person is a problem. For decades they and experts have argued that there are better, more accurate ways than spending $14.2 billion to send surveys, knock on doors and try to find every homeless person under a bridge. “One, two, three… 331,893,745.”
So, after they try to count every person in America, they conduct a survey to assess the accuracy of that count. They make a new survey of 160,000 households over 10,000 blocks across the country and gauge the accuracy of the whole count based on that sample count. That survey, the Post-Enumeration Survey, showed Illinois’ total count was likely off by about 2%.
Pritzker’s magic math translates that into 250,000 extra Illinoisans.
All that number really means is there could be more Illinoisans. How many remains a question, because the survey said the head count might have been off by as many as 440,000 people or only 64,000 people. The 2% figure is the midpoint of the accuracy range.
Now let’s look at Pritzker using his number to declare Illinois grew during the past decade.
The U.S. Census Bureau, for the first time, let people report their household information online. It offered surveys in 47 languages. It nearly doubled its advertising for the 2020 count over the 2010 spend.
All that argues for a much more accurate 2020 count, which the Census Bureau said still might be off by 2%. Chances are the 2010 count was much less accurate, and it missed a lot of people the 2020 count found.
Why does all this matter? Because Pritzker wants to pretend Illinois is not losing people. It is, according to other census estimates, surveys by two major moving van companies and the Internal Revenue Service’s numbers.
Annual Census Bureau estimates that start with the 10-year head count and use other federal data plus birth and death records show Illinois is losing. Eight consecutive census estimates have shown Illinois losing people, including a record 114,000 lost in the 2021 estimate. Births and deaths basically cancel each other out in Illinois, so that loss is people moving away.
Zach Meiborg is part of the exodus. He has growing children and a booming trucking company, and he doesn’t see much future for either in Illinois. He’s moving to Houston, Texas.
“Corruption and distrust of the state are corrosive to our further business investment in Illinois. With Gov. Pritzker constantly trampling our constitutional rights in particular around attempting to mandate masks, vaccines and redefining the existing laws on the books, the state’s constant corruption scandals, complete administrative mismanagement of unemployment and reckless workers’ comp laws, and an absurdly unbalanced budget are putting Illinois in our rearview mirror,” Meiborg said.
Jobs. Housing. Taxes.
Meiborg has said it. Surveys have said it. And common sense says there’s a problem when your property taxes are No. 2 in the nation and eat the equivalent of nearly seven monthly house payments, your pandemic jobs recovery lags the nation, and you make no effort to control your state spending or nation-leading pension debt of $313 billion.
Someone in Springfield better start listening. Otherwise, there really won’t be anything to see here.